4 Things to Know About This Week's Weather

• A cold front will bring relief from the heat in the Midwest and Northeast.
• This front will stall midweek, bringing rounds of storms.
• Texas will also see an increase in moisture this week.
• The Northwest will heat up while the interior West will be cool to start the week.

A changing weather pattern will bring a variety of weather conditions across the U.S. as the summer solstice approaches on Thursday.

To start the week, an upper-level ridge of high pressure will dominate the East with very hot conditions while an upper-level trough – or southward dip in the jet stream – will be in place over the West.

This upper-level pattern will slowly shift eastward during the week ahead as a frontal system drops southward through the Midwest and East.

Below, we take a closer look at what to know about the weather in the week ahead.

1. Relief From the Heat is Coming

The Midwest and Northeast will be baking in heat and humidity to start the week, with temperatures 10 to 25 degrees above average. Highs well into the 90s are expected, with lows only dropping into the 70s.

This combination of heat and humidity has prompted the National Weather Service to issue heat advisories and excessive heat warnings. 

(MORE: 6 Things You Should Know About Heat Waves)

Daily record highs and record-warm low temperatures are also anticipated through Monday.

Forecast Highs

(Contour on the map is forecast highs for Tuesday.)

The good news is that a cold front will push through much of the Midwest and Northeast by Wednesday, bringing an end to the intense heat.

Temperatures will be closer to average for mid-June by midweek, with highs topping out in the 70s and 80s. In addition, dew points will drop to more comfortable levels.

It will remain hot and humid for much of the Southeast, however.

2. Rounds of Storms Expected Along Stalled Front

The cold front that will bring relief from the heat to much of the Midwest and Northeast will bring the chance of thunderstorms to portions of the Midwest on Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms are also possible in the Northeast on Monday as the front moves through the region.

This frontal system will then stall mid- to late-week from the mid-Atlantic into the mid-Mississippi Valley and the central Plains.

Midweek Outlook

(Contour on the map is precipitation forecast for Wednesday.)

Abundant moisture will be in place along and south of this front. This will result in rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley and the Plains. 

(MORE: Rounds of Storms Expected This Week)

Storms may increase in the Plains as the week progresses as an upper-level low in the West slides eastward.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible, but it is too early for details on where and when. Localized flash flooding will also be a concern in areas where repeated rainfall occurs.

3. Moisture Increases Across Texas

Another area that will see a wet week is Texas. Tropical moisture associated with a trough or disturbance will surge into Texas and Louisiana early this week.

(MORE: Gulf of Mexico Tropical Disturbance to Fuel Soaking Rainfall in Texas, Southwestern Louisiana)

Locally heavy rainfall is anticipated, especially toward the Gulf Coast. This could result in some flash flooding.

This rainfall is good news for this region, as drought conditions have developed and increased recently.

Drought conditions as of June 12, 2018.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, about 75 percent of Texas is at least abnormally dry, and just under half of the state is in moderate drought. In addition, just under 10 percent of Texas is in extreme drought, and an area of the Texas Panhandle remains in exceptional drought – the highest drought category.

There is a chance that heavy rain could continue in parts of south Texas through late-week. If this were to occur, the rainfall would contribute to a higher risk of flooding.

4. Pattern Change is Ahead in the West

An upper-level trough, or southward dip in the jet stream, over the West to start the week will bring cooler and wetter conditions to portions of the region.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible in parts of the interior West, especially the northern Rockies, into midweek. This will keep temperatures there 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average.

Temperatures will also be below average from California into the Southwest to start the week.

Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge of high pressure will bring hot temperatures to the Pacific Northwest. Highs in the upper 80s and 90s are anticipated, including in Seattle and Portland. A few daily record highs are also not out of the question.

Cooler temperatures, although still slightly above average, will return to the Northwest by Thursday. As the upper-level low in the West slides eastward, temperatures will also warm across the interior, and drier conditions will develop. Highs will be near to slightly above average for much of the region by late-week.

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